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As you point out in your blog, even if the numbers are true the normalisation process removes almost all the interesting features.


Is the dip evidence of a reducing cohort half life?  Young teachers leave after 5-10 years and are replenished by return to work or career change teachers much later than in the past. Or the younger teachers now have a shorter half life so the gap between them and the second cohort is exposed.  Very tricky to unpick what is going on. 

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